Issued from the Met Office
at 02:00 BST on Saturday, 21st July 2018
UK Outlook for Wednesday 25 Jul 2018 to Friday 3 Aug 2018
A good deal of fine, settled weather for most, particularly at first, with sunny spells and light winds, but with the risk of some thundery showers, especially in the southeast. Increasing threat of some organised rain spreading into western areas. Staying very warm, locally hot in the south. Looking further ahead a west-east split in conditions is likely to develop, with eastern and southeastern areas probably drier, more settled, very warm and increasingly humid, but always with the risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Further west it may be more changeable and breezy with some outbreaks of rain or showers, but also some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures nearer normal in the west, but generally very warm elsewhere, with hot or very hot conditions at times, especially in the southeast.
UK Outlook for Saturday 4 Aug 2018 to Saturday 18 Aug 2018
Throughout this period it seems most likely that the weather pattern will only evolve very slowly. The west of the UK is likely to see more in the way of breezier, cloudier conditions with some rain or showers at times, with these occasionally affecting other areas. Elsewhere, especially in the east, drier and more settled weather is expected to dominate, although with the ongoing risk of a few heavy showers or thunderstorms breaking out at times. Temperatures remaining above average for most, with the potential for further spells of very warm or hot conditions, and possibly very hot, especially in the southeast. Temperatures are likely to be often nearer normal in the west and northwest.
Local Ensemble Forecasts
Based on the latest output from various weather models, expert opinion and analysis by the Met Office, the long weather forecast provides guidance on expected weather conditions across the British Isles for the next 30 days.
The forecast provides useful information on the possible conditions. However, science, as yet, does not allow specific detail on, for example, the number of nights of frost, days of rain or snow. Nor will it highlight when specifically within the period any severe weather may occur.
Ensembles forecasts shown are from the latest run of the GFS computer model for Chelmsford. Apart from showing confidence levels in the short and medium range, it gives a guide of expected temperatures (minimum and maximum) and rainfall over the next two weeks.
This data is provided under licence and updated daily, normally early morning.