23 Jan 2020 -

Chief Forecaster

Long Range Forecast

Issued from the Met Office
at 04:00 GMT on Thursday, 23rd January 2020

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Jan 2020 to Wednesday 5 Feb 2020

Next week looks likely to continue the unsettled theme with a mixture of spells of locally heavy rain and showers with colder and brighter interludes. The heaviest of the rain is likely to be focused over western parts with snow possible across some northern hills. It will be windy throughout with a chance of gales at times, which will reduce the risk of overnight frost and fog. Towards the end of the period the south and east may see slightly more settled conditions moving in. This will lead to an increased risk of frost and fog overnight. Temperatures will fluctuate between mild and rather cold at times as bands of rain move across the UK.

UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Feb 2020 to Thursday 20 Feb 2020

Through the first half of this period, the mobile wet and windy regime looks set to continue. It seems probable that the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer further north, leaving a more traditional northwest/southeast split. There are signs that through the middle of February, that more settled conditions will develop across the southeast. These settled conditions may gradually spread further northwest to influence much of the UK for a time. This would bring drier weather for all, with an increased likelihood of fog and frost. Unsettled spells of strong winds and rain are still likely from time to time, but mainly in the northwest. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, but could be rather cold overnight in more settled spells.


Ensemble Forecasts

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Forecast Information

Based on the latest output from various weather models, expert opinion and analysis by the Met Office, the long weather forecast provides guidance on expected weather conditions across the British Isles for the next 30 days.

The forecast provides useful information on the possible conditions. However, science, as yet, does not allow specific detail on, for example, the number of nights of frost, days of rain or snow. Nor will it highlight when specifically within the period any severe weather may occur.

Ensembles forecasts shown are from the latest run of the GFS computer model for Chelmsford. Apart from showing confidence levels in the short and medium range, it gives a guide of expected temperatures (minimum and maximum) and rainfall over the next two weeks.

This data is provided under licence and updated daily, normally early morning.

Weather Advisories
National Weather Forecast