18 Oct 2019 -

Chief Forecaster

Long Range Forecast

Issued from the Met Office
at 04:00 BST on Friday, 18th October 2019

UK Outlook for Tuesday 22 Oct 2019 to Thursday 31 Oct 2019

Tuesday should be mostly sunny, with some coastal showers in the south and outbreaks of rain and strong winds expected in the northwest. Looking ahead, the unsettled theme is set to continue for a brief period in the northwest with blustery showers and longer spells of rain. There should then be some longer episodes of more settled weather with bright and sunny spells mainly in the central, southern and eastern areas of the UK. The fine conditions should spread into the northwest towards the end of October. Temperatures should remain around average for this time of the year, which means there could be potential for overnight frost or fog on clear nights, but it may feel milder in any sunshine during the day.

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Nov 2019 to Friday 15 Nov 2019

The beginning of November looks to be largely settled and dry for most areas with a mixture of cloud and sunshine. Any spells of rain are likely to be confined to the far northwest. Clear conditions at night may allow temperatures to fall a little below average with overnight frosts and fog patches likely. Towards the middle of the month, there is a chance of more unsettled conditions with some rain or showers possible at times, however there is high uncertainty this far ahead.


Ensemble Forecasts

temperature-11

precipitation-12


Forecast Information

Based on the latest output from various weather models, expert opinion and analysis by the Met Office, the long weather forecast provides guidance on expected weather conditions across the British Isles for the next 30 days.

The forecast provides useful information on the possible conditions. However, science, as yet, does not allow specific detail on, for example, the number of nights of frost, days of rain or snow. Nor will it highlight when specifically within the period any severe weather may occur.

Ensembles forecasts shown are from the latest run of the GFS computer model for Chelmsford. Apart from showing confidence levels in the short and medium range, it gives a guide of expected temperatures (minimum and maximum) and rainfall over the next two weeks.

This data is provided under licence and updated daily, normally early morning.

Weather Advisories
National Weather Forecast