15 Jul 2019 -

Chief Forecaster

Long Range Forecast

Issued from the Met Office
at 04:00 BST on Monday, 15th July 2019

UK Outlook for Friday 19 Jul 2019 to Sunday 28 Jul 2019

Probably turning more widely unsettled on Friday, with rain and stronger winds moving northeast across the UK. The heaviest rain will most likely be across southern and western parts, although there is some uncertainty in the forecast at this stage. Into the weekend and the following week, conditions will probably stay changeable and breezy at times, with showers or longer spells of rain but also some brighter and drier spells. It may become generally drier and brighter, more especially in the south and southeast, with the more changeable conditions persisting across northwestern parts of the UK. Temperatures will generally be near normal, but warm at times, mainly in the south and east. Perhaps a very warm and humid interlude in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Monday 29 Jul 2019 to Monday 12 Aug 2019

The forecast is very uncertain at this stage, with mixed signals for higher or lower pressure by the end of July. However, there are signs of a possible more settled and drier interlude for many. Into August, there are very weak signs of some rain, possibly thundery outbreaks, developing across parts of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be above the average overall, especially in the south and east, where possibly rather warm and humid at times.


Ensemble Forecasts

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Forecast Information

Based on the latest output from various weather models, expert opinion and analysis by the Met Office, the long weather forecast provides guidance on expected weather conditions across the British Isles for the next 30 days.

The forecast provides useful information on the possible conditions. However, science, as yet, does not allow specific detail on, for example, the number of nights of frost, days of rain or snow. Nor will it highlight when specifically within the period any severe weather may occur.

Ensembles forecasts shown are from the latest run of the GFS computer model for Chelmsford. Apart from showing confidence levels in the short and medium range, it gives a guide of expected temperatures (minimum and maximum) and rainfall over the next two weeks.

This data is provided under licence and updated daily, normally early morning.

Weather Advisories
National Weather Forecast