25 Sep 2018 -

Chief Forecaster

Long Range Forecast

Issued from the Met Office
at 04:00 GMT on Tuesday, 25th September 2018

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Sep 2018 to Monday 8 Oct 2018

This weekend there'll be a good deal of fine weather, with the best of the sunshine across the south and west. However, northwestern areas will probably become cloudier with some rain through Saturday, with this patchy rain sinking slowly south and east but tending to die away as it does so. On Sunday northern and eastern parts will see some blustery showers, and it will become very windy in the far north with gales. Through the first week of October, many areas are likely to remain mostly settled, with some cold nights at first and perhaps some early morning fog, but still with some warm sunshine by day. Southern parts are likely to see the driest weather, but some wet and windy weather is possible at times in the north.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 9 Oct 2018 to Tuesday 23 Oct 2018

Generally settled and drier conditions are likely to dominate across many parts of the UK during the beginning of this period, particularly across the south. This should bring a good deal of sunshine, with any wet and windy weather likely to be mostly confined to the north. Longer nights will lead to a greater chance of fog and patchy frost, but the days will often be mild. Towards the middle of the month, there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, with the chance that it may turn more unsettled across all parts, although this is most likely to be across the north. Temperatures are likely to be near normal to locally warm at times, but overall colder than normal.


Ensemble Forecasts

temperature-24

precipitation-23


Forecast Information

Based on the latest output from various weather models, expert opinion and analysis by the Met Office, the long weather forecast provides guidance on expected weather conditions across the British Isles for the next 30 days.

The forecast provides useful information on the possible conditions. However, science, as yet, does not allow specific detail on, for example, the number of nights of frost, days of rain or snow. Nor will it highlight when specifically within the period any severe weather may occur.

Ensembles forecasts shown are from the latest run of the GFS computer model for Chelmsford. Apart from showing confidence levels in the short and medium range, it gives a guide of expected temperatures (minimum and maximum) and rainfall over the next two weeks.

This data is provided under licence and updated daily, normally early morning.

Weather Advisories
National Weather Forecast