19 Nov 2018 -

Chief Forecaster

Long Range Forecast

Issued from the Met Office
at 04:00 GMT on Monday, 19th November 2018

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Nov 2018 to Sunday 2 Dec 2018

Through the rest of November, there will often be cloudy skies, with the likelihood of some showers, which may bring hill snow in the north of the UK. There will be some sunny spells too, although the breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times, especially in the south and west where there may be gales in exposed areas. It will be staying on the chilly side, with patchy frost or ice likely at night. Into early December, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, as there is the chance of either a short-lived milder spell with winds from the west, or perhaps seeing even colder conditions if the winds turn more northerly or northeasterly.

UK Outlook for Monday 3 Dec 2018 to Monday 17 Dec 2018

Through this period, there may be a continuation of the cold and mainly settled conditions for much of the UK, with sunny spells and showers. However, there is a chance that during early December the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the west across the Atlantic. This would bring longer spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes, and it would also become less cold. However, even if the change does happen, it won't be long before we have more settled conditions again, perhaps by the middle of December. This would mean a return to the colder conditions, with overnight frost and fog more likely.


Ensemble Forecasts

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Forecast Information

Based on the latest output from various weather models, expert opinion and analysis by the Met Office, the long weather forecast provides guidance on expected weather conditions across the British Isles for the next 30 days.

The forecast provides useful information on the possible conditions. However, science, as yet, does not allow specific detail on, for example, the number of nights of frost, days of rain or snow. Nor will it highlight when specifically within the period any severe weather may occur.

Ensembles forecasts shown are from the latest run of the GFS computer model for Chelmsford. Apart from showing confidence levels in the short and medium range, it gives a guide of expected temperatures (minimum and maximum) and rainfall over the next two weeks.

This data is provided under licence and updated daily, normally early morning.

Weather Advisories
National Weather Forecast