Issued from the Met Office
at 02:00 on Saturday, 17th March 2018
UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Mar 2018 to Friday 30 Mar 2018
There will be a frosty start for some on Wednesday, especially in the east. Otherwise it will be a largely dry day with sunny spells for many before strong winds and a band of rain pushes into the northwest later. This band of cloud and rain will then spread across all parts on Thursday, followed by blustery showers in the west. Low pressure is then likely to be in charge of our weather for the rest of the period bringing spells of rain, especially across the south and southwest. Inbetween spells of rain there will be some drier, brighter and colder interludes. After a cold start to this period, temperatures will tend to recover before it then turns rather cold from the west again later, giving a chance of frost.
UK Outlook for Saturday 31 Mar 2018 to Saturday 14 Apr 2018
There is significant uncertainty in the forecast throughout this period, but a blocked or slowly changing weather pattern is probable. There will most likely be a balance between Atlantic frontal systems affecting the south and west at times with colder air associated with high pressure out to the northeast. Mixed conditions are likely with wetter than average conditions expected across the south, while staying drier and perhaps colder to the north. Further snow is possible, especially in the north where it will also be windy at times. Temperatures will likely be below average with further night frosts, and any milder interludes will probably be only brief.
Local Ensemble Forecasts
Based on the latest output from various weather models, expert opinion and analysis by the Met Office, the long weather forecast provides guidance on expected weather conditions across the British Isles for the next 30 days.
The forecast provides useful information on the possible conditions. However, science, as yet, does not allow specific detail on, for example, the number of nights of frost, days of rain or snow. Nor will it highlight when specifically within the period any severe weather may occur.
Ensembles forecasts shown are from the latest run of the GFS computer model for Chelmsford. Apart from showing confidence levels in the short and medium range, it gives a guide of expected temperatures (minimum and maximum) and rainfall over the next two weeks.
This data is provided under licence and updated daily, normally early morning.