13 Dec 2019 -

Chief Forecaster

Long Range Forecast

Issued from the Met Office
at 04:00 GMT on Friday, 13th December 2019

UK Outlook for Tuesday 17 Dec 2019 to Thursday 26 Dec 2019

A less windy interlude is likely for many at the start of next week with longer drier, brighter spells but also night frost and patchy fog. However, there may be further rain in the southeast on Tuesday, perhaps extending further north. From mid-week it will turn milder and unsettled again as further bands of rain and strong winds edge in from the west, after which unsettled and sometimes windy conditions will probably last for the rest of the period. Most of the rain will probably be in the west with drier spells more likely in the east and southeast. Snow may occur at times in the north, mainly on high ground. There remains a chance of brief drier, colder interludes, with an increased risk of frost and fog.

UK Outlook for Friday 27 Dec 2019 to Friday 10 Jan 2020

Confidence is low throughout this period. Changeable and sometimes windy conditions seem more likely through late December, with the wetter weather in the west and longer drier spells in the east. By the time we go into January, longer spells of more widely dry, quiet and bright weather are possible, especially for southern and central areas, with the northwest more likely to remain unsettled. Temperatures should be near to or somewhat above average overall, but with the usual day to day variations. However in quieter spells, it is likely to be colder generally, with an increased risk of frost and fog.


Ensemble Forecasts

temperature-13

precipitation-12


Forecast Information

Based on the latest output from various weather models, expert opinion and analysis by the Met Office, the long weather forecast provides guidance on expected weather conditions across the British Isles for the next 30 days.

The forecast provides useful information on the possible conditions. However, science, as yet, does not allow specific detail on, for example, the number of nights of frost, days of rain or snow. Nor will it highlight when specifically within the period any severe weather may occur.

Ensembles forecasts shown are from the latest run of the GFS computer model for Chelmsford. Apart from showing confidence levels in the short and medium range, it gives a guide of expected temperatures (minimum and maximum) and rainfall over the next two weeks.

This data is provided under licence and updated daily, normally early morning.

Weather Advisories
National Weather Forecast